Archive for the ‘Car Reliability’ Category

We recently updated the stats from TrueDelta’s Car Reliability Survey to include all of 2012. Unless the car in question is a 2010 model, information on how it has been holding up since last April isn’t available anywhere else. Put another way, we’re currently eight months ahead.

With surprisingly few exceptions, cars have been holding up well, and often very well. Here are the fairly new models that received red “sad faces” this time around (out of a total of over 400 results):

2013 – Ford Escape

2012 – None

2011 – None

2010 – Jaguar XF, Mercedes GLK, Hyundai Genesis, GM large crossovers, Ford Taurus

2009 – Cadillac CTS, Jaguar XF, Ford Flex

2008 – GM large crossovers, BMW 335i

2007 – Nissan Murano

Another thing to consider: even among the cars in this bunch, none had a repair frequency score in the triple digits. Even the least reliable models for which we had sufficient data averaged under one repair trip per car last year. (Though if four more owners of the 2008 Mercedes GL-Class reported in, I wouldn’t be able to say this. If you’re concerned about reliability, you don’t want one of these.)

Also consider that we count all problems, minor as well as major, and most reported problems are minor. The 2013 Ford Escape is in the “dirty dozen” because of common problems with door and hatch alignments. The 2010 Ford Taurus is here because, even after three years of replacements, the chrome trim keeps peeling off the tail lights of enough cars.

The 2010 Hyundai Genesis has had moderately serious problems with its fuel pump (V8 engine), plus the power tilt adjuster for the steering column and the power seat controls. To avoid a sad face with the 2009 CTS, skip the sunroof. The 2007 Nissan Murano commonly has problems with its front suspension (as does the 2006).

We could move the goalposts to force more models into the sad group, but we don’t want to put a sad face on cars whose owners are usually quite happy. For 2011 and newer cars, the dividing lines between a and a and then between a and a are around 30 and 60 repair trips per 100 cars per year, respectively. Most newish cars are under 30 per 100, and consequently get happy faces.

At the other end of the scale, we have some models for which absolutely no repairs were reported last year:

2013 – Audi A4 et al. (29 cars)

2012 – Honda CR-V (58 cars), Subaru Forester (33), Toyota Prius c (30)

2010 – Lexus RX (30 cars)

The 2013 Audi isn’t a fluke–both the 2011 and 2012 have also been faring well. Some other models came close to perfect records. If one more 2012 Rogue owner had responded and reported no repairs, the Nissan would be in this group. Only a single repair was reported for the 2013 Focus, 2012 C-Class, 2012 LEAF, 2012 Prius, 2012 Sienna, 2011 GM large SUVs, 2010 Corolla, 2009 Rogue, and 2008 IS.

Among notable new models, the 2013 Mazda CX-5 barely lost its former happy face due to multiple reports of fluttering hoods, rattling dashes, and vibrating mirrors, while the 2013 Toyobaru FRZ and 2012 FIAT 500 are deep in the yellow. The former has common problems with a chirping fuel pump and tail lamp condensation, while the latter has common problems with defective manifold bolts that cause oil leaks and an iffy Bluetooth module.

On the one hand, a single problem that affects most cars will mean the difference between a great score and a bad one. On the other, manufacturers are doing a very good job of catching and fixing problems before they can become common. Failures are exceptions, not the rule.

To view the stats for a model, and the specific repairs behind the stats:

Car Reliability Survey Results

Consumer electronics aren’t designed to last more than a few years. After all, advances in technology render computers and phones obsolete long before many of them have a chance to fail. Many people expect their cars to last at least a dozen years. If the car is a desirable one, enthusiasts would like to keep it going…forever. But will this be possible with the latest cars, with their thorough integration of complicated electronics?

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We’ve updated the stats from TrueDelta’s Car Reliability Survey to cover through the end of September, 2012. For information on how cars have been holding up through the past summer and fall, there is no other source.

So, what’s new? We have our first full result for a 2013 model, the Mazda CX-7. Few have required any repairs so far. We came within a response or two of having a full result for the Scion FR-S and Subaru BRZ. Through the end of September they were looking better than average. But enough owners have recently reported problems with tail light condensation and a chirping fuel pump that their score will worsen with future updates. If no further problems creep up they’ll have middling-to-poor scores for a few quarters, after which they could regain a better-than-average stat.

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A few months ago the reliability survey was reworked to make it more flexible. This has reduced the extreme urgency of the original system, and increased the quantity and the quality of the resulting data. But I haven’t yet found a regular cadence with the new system. So while we started previewing the latest stats in early July, and we publicly released them at the end of August, I’m only writing about them now.

One thing won’t change: even without an attending announcement, we will publicly release updated stats within two months of the end of each quarter. So if you check the site at the end of February, May, August, and November, they’ll be there.

A few days ago I posted about tweaks to the car reliability scales and “faces.” If you feel you’re seeing more yellows and reds in the stats, these are the reason.

Most 2012s have stayed about where they were with the latest update. Highly reliable recently redesigned or updated models include the Audi A6 and A7, FIAT 500, Honda Civic, Honda CR-V, Hyundai Accent, Hyundai Veloster, and Subaru Impreza. The Ford Focus isn’t in the top group, but remains much better than you’ll read elsewhere. The new Volkswagen Passat occupies the other end of the rankings along with the Jetta. Owners commonly report rattles for both cars. We also have a preliminary stat for one early 2013, the Mazda CX-5, and so far it appears nearly glitch-free.

To view the updated car reliability stats:

Car Reliability Survey results

When we first developed the formulas for graphically representing TrueDelta’s car reliability stats, we had far less data. We had to rely on cars with small sample sizes to get an idea of the breadth of the range from “fewest repair trips” to “most repair trips.”

We thoroughly revisited these calculations with the latest update. This time around, with more data to work with, we entirely ignored models for which we have fewer than 25 responses. The larger the sample size, the lower the possibility of extreme numbers, and highest “repair trips per year” stat for a given model year was much lower. The resulting formulas have a much smaller range from “fewest” to “most.”

We don’t balance the scale strictly about an average, because the intent is to give cars unlikely to have problems a “happy face” and reserve the “unhappy face” for models that are clearly troublesome. Put another way, as the average continues to improve we wouldn’t want to force bad ratings on cars that were actually fairly reliable in absolute (if not relative) terms. Keeping the old scale with the new formula yielded some overly conservative faces–the lower limits for the yellow and red faces seemed too low.

To counteract this, we shifted the divisions a point to the right on the eleven-point scale. Previously, the first three points were green, the next four yellow, and the last four red. This made sense as outliers had distended the “most repairs” end. With the new, compressed scale, we now have four green, four yellow, and three red.

Even with the shift, some scores that would have been green earlier are now yellow, and some that were yellow are now red. In the GMC Terrain example shown, both the 2010 and 2011 are so affected. Even so, reds remain uncommon. Few recent car models have proved to be troublesome, and we intend for the scales and faces to reflect this.

Updated Car Reliability Survey results were posted to the site late last night, minutes before the end of May. I hope to not cut it nearly so close in the future.

Actually, these results were later than I would have liked because of changes to the survey that should make future updates happen sooner after the end of each quarter. Because of these changes, we had to review about 30% more responses for errors this time around, but we now have a big head start on the next update.

Looking at the results themselves, some stand out…

Last quarter we had a preliminary stat for the all-new, Tennessee-made Volkswagen Passat, and it wasn’t pretty. With the update, based on far more data on more cars, the reported repair frequency is down by nearly half, and now isn’t far from average. Why the huge change? First, the earlier result was based on a small sample size, and so was not precise. Second, it’s likely that early cars had glitches, but VW quickly identified and fixed them.

The reported reliability stat for the FIAT 500 didn’t change much–and this is a good thing. No repairs were reported for any of the 28 participating cars during the first quarter. Only one repair has been reported during the past year. Who guessed this cars would be so reliable?

Another positive surprise: the redesigned Audi A6 and A7 have also had a very clean launch, with hardly any reported repairs.

Elsewhere you’ll find the Audi Q5 with the V6 engine on a “used cars to avoid” list. In contrast, TrueDelta reports good reliability scores for the Q5. Which source is incorrect? Neither of them, really. But the other source is out of date.

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We’ve updated the Car Reliability Survey stats to cover through the end of 2011, which puts them around eight months ahead of other sources of car reliability information. This time around we have full results for 603 model / model year combinations and partial results (based on small sample sizes) for another 518.

I’ll have more comments over the next week or so.

For now I’ll note that the Nissan LEAF electric car and the FIAT 500 have both been extremely reliable so far. The sample size for the latter is small, 20 cars, but only a single repair has been reported for the bunch. While that one repair did involve the engine, it was early on, nearly a year ago.

Not looking good: the new Volkswagen Passat. Our sample size is also small for this one–again 20 cars–but the stat is so high that it’ll likely remain worse than average, even much worse, in future updates with larger sample sizes.

To view the latest stats:

Car Reliability Survey results

You’ve know doubt heard, likely many times, that buying a car in the first year of a new design can be risky, especially early in its production run. But how soon does the risk dissipate? To track cars closely as they age, TrueDelta promptly updates its car reliability stats four times a year, not just once a year after a half-year delay. Our recently updated reliability stats over owner experiences through the end of September 2011.

Put another way, the reliability information you’ll find elsewhere cover the same time period TrueDelta’s did two quarterly updates ago, back in May. How much difference can a half-year make? In the case of some new Fords, quite a bit. (more…)

It’s a crazy November in our house, so much so that I’ve given nary a thought to my 44th birthday, now just days away. Our daughter, the oldest of our three children, is having her bat mitzvah this weekend. The complexity is just short of a wedding. At the same time, even as she organizes the bat mitzvah Gayla has been finishing up on the redesigned site, on track for launch later this month. Meanwhile, I’ve been managing the third quarter Car Reliability Survey. I’m reminded of an overnight yacht race I used to take part in. Boats would go their separate ways during the night, only to suddenly converge from all over Lake Michigan the next morning as they neared the finish. My own boat started this race just a month ago, but the other two got underway nearly a year ago. And they are all finishing this month.

We’ll start talking about the redesigned site more soon–we’ve made some tweaks and additions in the last couple of weeks that we’re very excited about. For now, just the Car Reliability Survey.

For various reasons, among them the need for a redesigned site (as stated above, coming soon) and the need for some mobile apps (hopefully coming not long after–Gayla’s next project), it has become harder and harder to maintain the same level of participation in the Car Reliability Survey. But in the last hour the number of responses this round passed the number of responses the last time around. Now at 22,386, they’ll likely reach the goal of 22,500 before we close the third quarter survey late Thursday or early Friday.

Way back near the beginning, less than 24 hours after the initial email went out on October 3rd, I projected the number of results we’d have this time around. Those projections:

Basic stats, 100+ cars: 24

Odds stats, 35+ cars: 120

Odds stats, 25+ cars: 235

Basic stats, 25+ cars: 590

Basic stats, small N: 1080

The actual numbers, at this moment:

Basic stats, 100+ cars: 25

Odds stats, 35+ cars: 120

Odds stats, 25+ cars: 229

Basic stats, 25+ cars: 590

Basic stats, small N: 1080

My projections are usually pretty close–but never this close. Even a few days ago it looked like a few were going to fall far short. But members really came through in the last few days, and here we are, nearing the finish.