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Car Reliability Survey:
Nada-odds and Lemon-odds

Year ending September 30, 2009

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New stats: what car buyers really want to know

When buying a car, wouldn't you really like to know:

How likely am I to get a lemon?

What are the odds the car will require no repairs--not one, nada?

Problem is, by providing only the average problem rates (or vague ratings based on these averages), no one's really been answering these questions.

Until now. With new "Nada-odds" and "Lemon-odds" stats, TrueDelta will, for the first time anywhere, provide the answers car buyers have been seeking.

These stats require larger sample sizes than our regular stats, so currently they're available for far fewer models. That said, results are updated every three months, and each time coverage will increase.

Car Reliability Survey (CRS) Results: year ending Sept. 30, 2009
Nada-odds cars per 100 with no repairs (nada) in the past year; 100 is ideal Lemon-odds cars per 100 with 3+ repair trips in the past year; 0 is ideal Column definitions
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Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2008	Acura	MDX	join to view		28 11.9 19900
2007	Acura	MDX	55	3	37 11.6 31700
2006	Audi	A3	join to view		28 11.9 42700
2007	Audi	A4	join to view		26 11.5 33800
2006	Audi	A4	54	< 1	40 11.7 50600
2008	BMW	335	join to view		25 11.5 18600
2007	BMW	328	join to view		29 11.4 28300
2007	BMW	335	59	< 1	35 11.7 22100
2006	BMW	3-Series 4dr	54	3	34 11.6 44400
2001	BMW	3-Series	join to view		27 11.4 91200
2009	Buick	Enclave	77	< 1	31 10.2 11800
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2008	Buick	Enclave	57	5	164 11.5 22900
2008	Cadillac	CTS	57	3	40 11.8 20000
2007	Chevrolet	Cobalt	join to view		26 11.1 30800
2009	Chevrolet	Traverse	77	< 1	31 10.2 11800
2006	Chrysler	300	53	< 1	45 11.8 38500
2005	Chrysler	300	join to view		26 11.6 69500
2008	Chrysler	Town & Country	59	< 1	39 11.3 19200
2005	Chrysler	Town & Country	40	9	34 11.8 64100
2008	Dodge	Caravan / Grand Caravan	59	< 1	39 11.3 19200
2005	Dodge	Caravan / Grand Caravan	40	9	34 11.8 64100
2006	Dodge	Charger / Magnum	53	< 1	45 11.8 38500
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2005	Dodge	Magnum	join to view		26 11.6 69500
2007	Ford	Edge AWD	join to view		25 11.4 28700
2008	Ford	Escape	49	3	33 11.5 22800
2007	Ford	Five Hundred / Freestyle	join to view		25 12.0 38500
2006	Ford	Five Hundred / Freestyle	join to view		28 11.6 49800
2005	Ford	Five Hundred / Freestyle	49	7	44 11.8 56200
2008	Ford	Fusion	71	< 1	32 11.8 17200
2007	Ford	Fusion	70	< 1	31 11.7 33600
2006	Ford	Fusion	join to view		28 11.6 44400
2009	GMC	Acadia	77	< 1	31 10.2 11800
2008	GMC	Acadia	57	5	164 11.5 22900
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2007	GMC	Acadia	45	5	62 11.7 35400
2008	Honda	Accord	82	< 1	74 11.5 21600
2007	Honda	Accord	75	< 1	41 11.5 29500
2006	Honda	Accord	94	< 1	34 11.6 48900
2004	Honda	Accord	71	< 1	35 11.8 66500
2003	Honda	Accord	join to view		26 11.6 96800
2008	Honda	Civic	76	< 1	30 11.7 23800
2007	Honda	Civic	68	< 1	37 11.3 33500
2006	Honda	Civic	78	< 1	33 11.5 49200
2007	Honda	CR-V	72	< 1	40 11.9 31600
2009	Honda	Fit	84	< 1	35 10.8 13700
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2008	Honda	Fit	91	< 1	35 11.3 18500
2007	Honda	Fit	86	< 1	43 11.8 40000
2007	Honda	Odyssey	67	< 1	37 11.8 32700
2006	Honda	Odyssey	77	< 1	36 11.4 48900
2005	Honda	Odyssey	59	< 1	30 11.8 54000
2003	Honda	Odyssey	join to view		25 11.8 93200
2002	Honda	Odyssey	55	< 1	30 11.7 99600
2009	Hyundai	Genesis Sedan	63	3	33 10.8 11400
2008	Hyundai	Santa Fe	join to view		26 11.7 16300
2007	Hyundai	Santa Fe	61	3	36 11.9 27100
2007	Hyundai	Sonata	join to view		25 11.6 38400
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2006	Hyundai	Sonata	53	3	39 11.7 46300
2008	Infiniti	EX	join to view		27 11.1 17900
2008	Infiniti	G35 / G37	67	< 1	67 11.5 17900
2007	Infiniti	G35 sedan	60	3	31 11.6 27100
2004	Infiniti	G35	join to view		27 11.8 53600
2003	Infiniti	G35	join to view		29 11.5 75200
2006	Infiniti	M-Series	join to view		28 11.5 56900
2008	Jeep	Patriot / Compass	join to view		26 11.3 25200
2008	Jeep	Wrangler	join to view		26 11.7 23500
2007	Lincoln	MKX AWD	join to view		25 11.4 28700
2008	Lincoln	MKZ	71	< 1	32 11.8 17200
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2007	Lincoln	MKZ	70	< 1	31 11.7 33600
2006	Lincoln	Zephyr	join to view		28 11.6 44400
2008	Mazda	CX-9	join to view		26 11.7 21200
2007	Mazda	CX-9	join to view		26 11.9 34900
2008	Mazda	Mazda3	75	6	33 11.6 24300
2007	Mazda	Mazda3	83	< 1	31 11.7 30300
2006	Mazda	Mazda3	70	3	34 11.9 47500
2005	Mazda	Mazda3	join to view		25 11.6 55500
2006	Mazda	Mazda5	join to view		27 11.6 42400
2003	Mazda	Protege	join to view		29 11.6 71900
2008	Mazda	Tribute	49	3	33 11.5 22800
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2008	Mercedes-Benz	C-Class	70	3	31 11.5 16500
2008	Mercury	Mariner	49	3	33 11.5 22800
2008	Mercury	Milan	71	< 1	32 11.8 17200
2007	Mercury	Milan	70	< 1	31 11.7 33600
2006	Mercury	Milan	join to view		28 11.6 44400
2007	Mercury	Montego	join to view		25 12.0 38500
2006	Mercury	Montego	join to view		28 11.6 49800
2005	Mercury	Montego	49	7	44 11.8 56200
2008	Nissan	Altima	73	< 1	43 11.5 22900
2007	Nissan	Altima	65	< 1	38 11.8 29600
2009	Nissan	Murano	75	< 1	34 11.5 17900
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2008	Nissan	Rogue	78	3	73 11.7 22600
2008	Nissan	Versa	73	2	45 11.6 22000
2007	Nissan	Versa	66	7	55 11.5 32800
2007	Pontiac	G5	join to view		26 11.1 30800
2007	Saab	9-3	join to view		27 11.4 31100
2008	Saturn	ASTRA	66	3	60 11.2 17200
2008	Saturn	AURA	51	3	30 11.5 19000
2007	Saturn	AURA	56	7	61 11.8 31600
2009	Saturn	Outlook	77	< 1	31 10.2 11800
2008	Saturn	Outlook	57	5	164 11.5 22900
2007	Saturn	Outlook	45	5	62 11.7 35400
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2008	Saturn	VUE	75	< 1	46 11.6 22400
2008	Scion	xB	join to view		29 11.6 24700
2008	smart	fortwo	65	< 1	66 11.4 14600
2009	Subaru	Forester	74	6	32 11.5 13100
2008	Subaru	Legacy	69	< 1	40 11.6 22800
2006	Subaru	Legacy	join to view		29 11.8 46200
2005	Subaru	Legacy	60	2	44 11.5 57100
2008	Subaru	Outback	69	< 1	40 11.6 22800
2006	Subaru	Outback	join to view		29 11.8 46200
2005	Subaru	Outback	60	2	44 11.5 57100
2008	Suzuki	SX4	96	< 1	49 11.7 21200
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2007	Suzuki	SX4	79	5	40 11.6 29500
2007	Toyota	Camry Hybrid	join to view		29 11.7 43000
2007	Toyota	Camry 4	join to view		26 11.5 39500
2007	Toyota	FJ Cruiser	81	< 1	33 11.5 35500
2008	Toyota	Prius	93	< 1	57 11.7 25300
2007	Toyota	Prius	85	< 1	53 11.8 39200
2006	Toyota	Prius	70	< 1	47 11.7 50000
2005	Toyota	Prius	79	< 1	40 11.6 66500
2008	Toyota	RAV4	84	< 1	39 11.3 17400
2007	Toyota	RAV4	88	< 1	34 11.4 28400
2006	Toyota	RAV4	63	< 1	34 11.5 41400
Year	Make	Model	Nada-odds per 100 cars	Lemon-odds per 100 cars	Cars Mon/Car Av Odo
2006	Toyota	Sienna	join to view		28 11.6 46900
2005	Toyota	Sienna	join to view		26 11.4 60000
2004	Toyota	Sienna	join to view		29 11.7 81700
2007	Toyota	Tundra	join to view		26 11.5 30000
2007	Toyota	Yaris	join to view		29 11.6 43800
2008	Volkswagen	GTI	join to view		25 11.8 17300
2007	Volkswagen	GTI	join to view		25 11.8 39200
2008	Volkswagen	Jetta 2.0T	join to view		25 11.8 17300
2007	Volkswagen	Jetta 2.0T	join to view		25 11.8 39200
2007	Volkswagen	Passat	46	3	32 11.9 34500
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Definitions

Nada-odds -- Percent of cars with no repairs (i.e. nada) in the past year.
Lemon-odds -- Percent of cars with 3+ more repair trips in the past year.
Vehicles -- number of cars for which owners provided 9+ months of data
Mon/veh -- average number of months of data per vehicle
Odometer -- average odometer reading on September 30, in miles; under 9,000 per year in green, over 15,000 per year in red

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General Notes

Note the sample sizes in the right column. For a precise Nada-odds, it'd be best to have 50+ cars. For Lemon-odds, 100+. In most cases the sample sizes are between 25 and 35, and differences of less than six points are probably not meaningful. This is especially a factor with the "Lemon-odds," where nearly all scores are low.

That said, the Lemon-odds figures are probably much lower than many people suspected, so we've posted them. Similarly, the Nada-odds are probably higher than many people suspected. Even with the least reliable cars in this results set your odds of no repairs would be better than one in three. Surprised?

Methodology

Description of the research process.

The samples include cars for which we have at least nine months of data in the past year. The "Nada-odds" are adjusted based on the average number of months of data per car. These stats are very close to what they'd be if we included only cars with a full year of data.

Only successfully completed repairs are currently included in the analysis. Recalls and problems fixed with just a reflash or warning light reset are not included.

You can help provide more comprehensive and more precise future results by joining the panel.

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Brand		Model		Zip Code

Car Reliability Survey:
Nada-odds and Lemon-odds