Before TrueDelta, nearly all publicly available car reliability information was relative to the average. While “better than average” certainly seemed preferable to “worse than average,” one key piece of information wasn’t provided: how high (or low) was the average? Did the average car require one repair per year? Two? More? No one without insider status knew. To fix this, I started TrueDelta a decade ago. So, what have we learned?
The 37th set of results covered the year that ended September 30, 2015. The minimum, maximum, and average repair frequency for the past 15 model years, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:
| Model Year | Number of Models | Minimum Repair Frequency | Maximum Repair Frequency | Average Repair Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 50 | 0 (Civic, Camry, RAV4) | 80 (MKC) | 22 |
| 2014 | 62 | 0 (Corolla, Prius) | 66 (Grand Cherokee) | 24 |
| 2013 | 87 | 0 (Camry, Prius v, Tacoma) | 76 (Dart w/ 1.4T) | 29 |
| 2012 | 70 | 3 (Highlander) | 109 (Countryman) | 33 |
| 2011 | 67 | 3 (Prius) | 81 (X5, X6) | 34 |
| 2010 | 57 | 3 (CR-V) | 83 (Enclave, Traverse, Acadia) | 36 |
| 2009 | 49 | 15 (Fusion) | 117 (Tiguan) | 46 |
| 2008 | 68 | 5 (Camry) | 101 (TrailBlazer, Envoy) | 50 |
| 2007 | 62 | 14 (Camry 4 cyl.) | 118 (X3) | 57 |
| 2006 | 49 | 11 (MX-5 Miata*, Ridgeline) | 112 (TrailBlazer, Envoy) | 59 |
| 2005 | 29 | 15 (Tundra) | 138 (Escalade, Tahoe, Yukon) | 61 |
| 2004 | 24 | 42 (TL, TSX) | 115 (Grand Cherokee) | 68 |
| 2003 | 26 | 36 (Z4*, Vibe, Matrix, Camry) | 163 (Golf diesel, Jetta diesel) | 76 |
| 2002 | 17 | 47 (Boxster*, F-150) | 137 (S60, V70) | 81 |
| 2001 | 12 | 47 (Z3*, Accord) | 123 (Golf, Jetta) | 81 |
I’ve included the models with the best and worst stats for each year, but it must be noted that we don’t have stats for many models (especially for cars over ten years old). Even among those with stats (click for complete ranking), quite a few are usually close to the minimum, and are thus virtually as reliable as those listed. At the other end of the scale, there are often some other models near each maximum. The asterisks indicate sports cars, many of which are not driven much. Finally, realize that during the first few years most problems are minor. (I’ll discuss the percentage of repairs that affect key systems, and how this percentage increases as cars age, in a future post.)
Some observations:
1. No surprise, the repair frequency steadily increases as cars age.
2. The average car now has about a one-in-four chance of a repair each year during the warranty period. For someone like myself who’s been around for a little while, this seems amazing. The question didn’t used to be whether a car would need something fixed in its first year, but how many things.
3. The best car models are now likely to require no repairs at all during their first three years of ownership. A few remain nearly problem-free for twice that long.
4. Even the worst car models don’t often average over one repair trip per year until they’re about six years old. The overall average also jumps at that point, to about double the new car average. This happens to be about the time most CPO (certified pre-owned) and extended warranties expire.
5. At about the same time the odds of requiring a repair with one of the most reliable car models stops being near zero.
6. Still, the best car models remain more reliable than the average new car until they’re about 11 years old. It seems that even in these “tanks” some parts are engineered to last a decade.
7. At about the same time the average car requires repairs about as often as the least reliable nearly new cars.
See something else? Leave a comment.
Now that you have the actual repair frequencies, and not just vague notions of how a given car model compares to the average, what sort of odds are you comfortable with? Do these numbers make you more or less likely to insist on a car that’s much better than average? Do they affect how old of a car you’d be comfortable with, and if so how much?