J.D. Power has reported that for the first time in 14 years Lexus didn’t get the top average score in their Vehicle Dependability Study (VDS). Instead, Buick and Jaguar tied for the top spot.

How did Lexus fall so far? Well, they didn’t. They’re only four problems per 100 cars (1/25 of a problem per car) behind the leaders. Not a meaningful difference.

But hasn’t TrueDelta been reporting a high repair rate for Jaguar’s latest model, the XF? Yes, but this is not a contradiction. The new VDS results include only 2006s in their third year of ownership. (Not the first three years, as many thing: the first and second years are not covered.) There was no 2006 XF.

More to the point, there were no new Jaguar designs in 2006. And what “they” say about car designs in their first year is often true.

In comparison, Buick had one mostly-new model in 2006, the Lucerne, and Lexus had two all-new models, the GS and IS.

So let Jaguar enjoy their top position while it lasts. The 2007 XK will probably put a dent in next year’s score. And in three years the 2009 XF will have an impact.

And Buick and Lexus? The Enclave will factor into Buick’s scores in two years. Based on TrueDelta’s current data, Buick will likely fall from the top but remain above average. The Lexus LS was redesigned for 2007, but they tend to avoid first-year bugs with this one.

Above all, it’s important to note what any survey covers. This one covers the third year of ownership. Want repair rates for cars after the warranty ends? Then you’re already in the right place.