If you frequent forums like I do, you’ll often read comments like, “I had a [model], and it never needed anything except oil changes.” You’ll also read comments by people with the opposite experience, “I had a [model] and it was in the shop all the time. [Manufacturer] ended up buying it back.”

Problem is, such statements are of little value without knowing the odds of getting a car at one or the other extreme. TrueDelta needs larger sample sizes before providing this information. But I’ve already had a few insights.

First off, it’s possible to get a lemon with any car. Just yesterday a panel member informed me that Lexus had bought back his 2007 ES 350 with about 8,000 miles on the clock. The car had had a number of problems: a new transmission at 2,300 miles, a failed navigation/climate control unit (twice), a leaking strut, and, finally, an oil leak that had required pulling the engine.

At the other extreme, no model is so unreliable that many owners won’t have a problem with it for at least the first year or two. Over a six-month period, between 70 and 80 percent of panel members report no repair trips with their cars. It’ll be interesting to see how this percentage shakes out as TrueDelta gathers additional months of data. What percentage will go three years without a repair?

The odds of getting a lemon TrueDelta will be calling “lemon-odds.” This stat is still a ways off, as the rarer an event is the larger the sample you need to accurately measure it. There’s no common term for the opposite of a lemon; we’re going to use “cherry.” The odds of getting a cherry are much higher than those of getting a lemon, with probably any model. So TrueDelta will be reporting “cherry-odds” sooner, perhaps as early as next year.