When a new model such as the Saturn Aura sedan comes out, many people wait until reliability information is available before taking a chance by buying one. So TrueDelta intends to provide such information as soon as possible. But how soon is possible?

TrueDelta is aiming to provide initial reliability information in February for models introduced in the early fall. Yes, these results will only be based on perhaps two months of data for the average car responding, so they won’t be as precise as results based on a longer time period.

Compared to J.D. Power’s IQS, TrueDelta’s February results will have a bit less information, while the May results will have more. Some people have been critical of J.D. Power for putting so much emphasis on its 90-day results, since they aren’t necessarily indicative of long-term reliability. I don’t have a problem with this aspect of the IQS as long as people realize it’s only based on the first 90 days of ownership. Unfortunately, J.D. Power provides only one other data point, for the third year of ownership.

TrueDelta gives you more choice, with new results every three months. How many months of data do you need to feel comfortable about a car: Two? Five? Eight? Forty-eight? Whatever the number, we’ll we’ll have results about a month and a half after the quarter ends. This is about as soon as possible.

Currently Consumer Reports first provides reliability information on models introduced in the fall in November, when its New Car Preview hits newsstands. Their surveys always cover the year ending March 31. And if it’s not November yet, we’re talking about March 31st of the previous year. This is the same period covered by TrueDelta’s May results.

What many people don’t realize is that this means that Consumer Reports reliability verdicts for 2006 models are still only based on about three months of ownership, on average–roughly the same as J.D. Power’s IQS. Many people probably think that the “Annual Auto Issue” currently on newsstands includes information on at least a year of ownership for 2006 models, since the 2007 model year is alredy half over. For this amount of information, you’ll have to wait until November of this year. Want the same data for a fall-intro 2007, like the Aura? Then you’d better be prepared to wait until November 2008.

Consumer Reports already provides reliability verdicts for a few 2007 models. How is this possible? Well, a few 2007s were introduced early in the 2006 calendar year. They’ll issue a verdict as long as they have 100 responses–it doesn’t matter how long people have had the car. In the case of the Honda Fit, this time period was actually negative: the Fit didn’t reach dealers until April 2006. It seems that at least 100 Consumer Reports subscribers didn’t read, misread, or ignored the instructions on the survey, which said to only respond for cars bought before April 1, 2006. In other words, they’ve provided a verdict based entirely on data provided by people who didn’t read the instructions correctly.

This might explain why some of Consumer Reports’ past predictions for spring intro models have been off the mark. Last year, they reported that the reliability of the Honda Ridgeline was off the charts. This year they revised that prediction to merely average.

TrueDelta will have its first results for the Aura in May, and will have data on year-old Auras in February 2008. And whenever results are posted it’ll be clear which time period they cover. People who want an early prediction will get one. Those who want more solid results based on a longer time period will get those as well, and without waiting another year.