I’ve been noticing that many new designs start out with high repair rates, and then improve quickly. I saw this with the 2006 Civic and the 2007 Dodge Caliber. I’m seeing it again with the 2007 Nissan Versa. In the upcoming August results, the Versa’s repair rate will be much lower than it was in May. It’s the fastest improvement I’ve seen so far.

Which got me to thinking: both J.D. Power and Consumer Reports collect data in the late winter or spring. By this time, manufacturers will have already had time to fix many bugs with new models that were introduced early, during the previous winter or spring. As a result, I’d expect the first-year reliability stats of these models to be better, even much better, than they otherwise would be.

And what of new designs that were introduced in the late fall or early winter? The stats could well be worse than they’d otherwise be.

Since TrueDelta reports quarterly, it doesn’t matter when a new design is introduced. But for any manufacturer interested in boosting their scores on the other surveys, I’d introduce new designs in the spring. Sure, Consumer Reports might still publish a result for these models. But if the past is any indication, they’ll be so new and have so few miles on them that the resulting rating tends to be a good one.

What you don’t want to do is introduce a new design just a few months before these surveys take place. For then these surveys will catch the first batch or two of cars right after owners have had enough time to experience the initial wave of problems.