Unlike other awards in the United States, the North American Car and Truck of the Year (NACTOY) is based on voting by dozens of journalists who work for many different websites and publications. So it might deserve a little more weight than the others. Or not. There have been some odd choices over the years, as the award often goes to a new car or truck based on what it signifies for the future of the brand or the segment, not on how good it is. Keep this in mind when guessing which of the finalists–announced yesterday–will win. To be considered, a car or truck must be new this year.

The cars: Ford Mustang, Hyundai Genesis, and VW Golf.

The trucks: Chevrolet Colorado, Ford F-150, and Lincoln MKC.

(Links are to reviews of the three I’ve evaluated.)

Each is a strong product. Based on other awards, the Golf and Colorado are the odds-on favorites. But NACTOY tends to operate differently than other awards, favoring models that have an impact across the industry, or that signify that a weak brand is on the way back.

Both the Mustang and Genesis are dramatic improvements over the previous generation, with both now fully competitive with quasi-competitors that cost considerably more, but this probably isn’t enough. The MKC is the best Lincoln is recent memory, but this probably isn’t enough, either. It’s getting some well-deserved and much-needed recognition just by being among the finalists. On the car side, the Golf, available in multiple versions, all of them surprisingly good, looks hard to beat. The main thing against it: it has already won other awards.

The truck award is harder to call. The Colorado injects some much-needed new into the nearly dead compact pickup segment. While the F-150 is an attempt to re-invent the pickup with all-aluminum bodies and a small turbocharged V6. This attempt isn’t an unqualified success–the results haven’t blown anyone away–but it’s more audacious than offering a truck originally designed for international markets in the U.S.