Coming (maybe): a record number of new or redesigned car models

Merrill Lynch just presented its 26th annual “Car Wars” study at the Detroit-based Automotive Press Association. Their analysis tries to predict which auto makers will fare best in coming years based on how much of its product line will be updated. Overall, the auto industry will be launching more new or fully redesigned models over the next four years than at any other time in the past two decades, with 2019 and 2020 extremely busy.

Over the past two decades product launches have averaged 38 per year. The coming model year and 2018 will be about average, with 44 and 49, respectively. But based on Merrill Lynch’s research auto makers will launch an incredible 70 new or redesigned models in 2019 and 68 in 2020.

Total launches 2017 to 2020

The risk in this strategy: Merrill Lynch forecasts that U.S. auto sales will surge to a record 20 million units in 2018, then begin a cyclical decline. All of these new cars, crossovers, and trucks (including redesigns for all three major full-size pickups) could be launched into a declining market. Of course, if manufacturers realize soon enough that some programs will not pay off they could cancel them. Only the 2017s are virtually set in stone at this point.

Not all auto makers will be equally industrious. GM, Ford, and Honda will update an especially high percentage of their lines from 2017 to 2020. In contrast, the Koreans will be slowing down a little, and will be focusing far too heavily on cars (where GM, Ford, and FCA will be doing relatively little) rather than where the growth has been, in trucks and crossovers. Merrill Lynch sees this as a cause for concern. They also note that Nissan’s strategy seems “confused.”

Of perhaps greatest interest to anyone who’ll be buying a new car in the next few years: the report includes their findings of which car lines will be updated when. (Sorry about the image quality, I photographed a paper report.)

Any surprises? Anything you’re especially looking forward to? You can comment at the bottom.

General Motors car launches 2017 to 2020

Ford launches 2017 to 2020

FCA launches 2017 to 2020

Toyota launches 2017 to 2020

Honda launches 2017 to 2020

Nissan launches 2017 to 2020

Korean launches 2017 to 2020

European launches 2017 to 2020

Other launches 2017 to 2020

But are these predictions accurate? Those made in the same report two years ago have turned out to be overly optimistic, with many launches actually happening a year or two later than predicted. For example, none of the predictions made two years ago for Toyota for the 2017 and 2018 model years remain in the new report. This probably isn’t entirely or even mostly the analysts’ fault. Programs get delayed and even canceled all the time.

My prediction based on the outcome of these past predictions: that huge surge for 2019 and 2020 won’t happen, at least not in 2019 and 2020. Many of the launches currently predicted for 2019 and 2020 will instead happen in 2021 and 2022, if ever.

  • Tami

    Start earnĀ­ing residual profit weekly… This is fantastic part-time work for everyone… The best part is that you can work from your home and earn $100 to $2000 at the end of every week … Start today and receive your first payment at the end of the week…>

  • Colette

    I actually earn almost $6,000-$8,000 per month through the internet. It is a sufficient amount to easily replace my previous jobs income, especially considering I just work about twenty hr per week from home.I lost my job after working for the same organization for several years, I needed trusted source of income, I was not thinking about the “get rich quick” home programs as you can see online. Those are usually pyramid schemes or stuff in which you have to sell to your friends and relatives. I just needed a trustworthy method to earn a living for me and my family. The greatest benefit of working on the net is that I am always home with the little kids, I save lots of money. Honestly,it is actually simpler than you would believe, all you have to do is fill out a very simple form to obtain front line access to the Home Profit System . You don’t have to be a computer whiz, but you should be aware how to use the internet. If you can fill up forms and browse sites, you can do it easily, You don’t even have to sell anything and no one has to purchase anything. It is as easy as being on Facebook or twitter.Here’s the best way to start out===> START NOW GET RESULTS