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ICOTY candidates–who’s likely to win?

November 5th, 2009

Finalists have been announced for the ICOTY (International Car of the Year) award. Winners will be announced at NAIAS (the Detroit auto show) in January. A few dozen leading auto writers from various publications and websites vote, so advertising is not a factor in this one.

The car finalists:

1. Chevrolet Camaro

2. Ford Taurus

3. Hyundai Genesis

The truck finalists:

1. Chevrolet Equinox

2. Ford Transit Connect

3. Volvo XC60

I learned a few years ago, when the Saturn AURA won, that voting is heavily based on the significance of the car for its manufacturer and for the car market, and not just on what the car is like to look at and drive.

In the car category we have:

1. The first car Hyundai has produced that enthusiasts would want to drive.

2. The symbol of Ford’s (hoped for) resurgence. Journalists love to boost Ford these days. (Which will also help the Transit Connect.) The Taurus has been receiving so-so reviews, but so did the AURA.

3. A niche product that, while stylish and powerful, doesn’t point the way to the future of either GM or the car market in general.

So I think the odds of winning run in the above order.

Over in trucks, I see no chance for the XC60. The question, then, is whether a revolutionary (for North America) cargo can get the nod over a mainstream crossover that is far better than the one it replaced. Tough call, but if I have to pick one it’s the Equinox.

I used to think that journalists would avoid giving one manufacturer both wins. But then GM won both two years ago, so this isn’t a factor.

Posted in Automotive Press | 6 Comments »

Chrysler’s mistake with the Dodge and Ram brands

November 4th, 2009

Today Chrysler officially announced that they will be splitting the Ram pickup away from the Dodge brand, and making “Ram” a separate brand. Pickuptruck.com has posted 5 reasons why it’s wrong to divorce Ram trucks from the Dodge brand. And they’re good ones, chiefly that Ram truck owners think of their trucks as Dodges and are the brand most loyal customers. Continue this line of reasoning, and it becomes clear that, while a split might make sense, Chrysler’s execution is all wrong.

The facts, as Chrysler understands them: people strongly associate the Dodge brand with trucks, and as a result Dodge’s cars get overshadowed. Meanwhile, they want to move Dodge cars away from the current macho positioning and towards new lifestyles or whatnot.

So they don’t want the Dodge brand to mean anything that it currently means.

In this case, why not let Dodge be trucks, and resurrect Plymouth or Eagle for the cars? If they’re starting from scratch with the Dodge brand anyway, why not start with a new or mothballed brand? This way they’d only have to build one new brand–a task with a low probability of success in the best of conditions–not two. They could work with Dodge’s current image rather than fighting it.

There’s simply no need to get rid of the bird they have in their hand in order to go after a second in the bush. With their current plan they risk ending up with no brands that mean anything.

Posted in Brands | 1 Comment »

Does Mazda have a rust problem?

November 2nd, 2009

I’ve long thought rust was a thing of the past. Rust prevention technology has gotten so good that I haven’t had a car with a rust problem since a decade-old 1985 Ford Escort. And even with the Escort rust wasn’t externally visible. I hardly ever see a car with visible rust around the Detroit suburbs, and those I do see are over a decade old.

Then a few months back I noticed that my 2003 Mazda Protege5 was rusting around the rear wheel openings and along the inside of the driver’s door, where the inner and outer panel are welded together.

Conducting the TrueDelta Car Reliability Survey, I’ve been receiving multiple reports of such rust with both the Protege and the Mazda3. As far as I can tell, neither model has sufficient rust protection for areas where the roads are salted. In some cases, rust has started within the warranty period.

People still remember how Hondas used to rust back in the 1970s and 1980s.

Now I’m wondering if Mazda’s rep is going to take a similar hit. Rust is worse than other problems–you can’t fix it merely by swapping out parts. It’s essentially cancer for cars. I’ve treated those areas I can get to, and repainted them. But this will probably be an annual procedure going forward. A shame, because these particular models are otherwise very durable.

The rust warranty lasts for five years–so it ended a year ago today for me. Called the dealer I bought the car from, and they essentially said I’m SOL. Especially since I haven’t been taking the car there for $30+ oil changes.

Which is about what I expected. Another thing I’ve learned by conducting this survey: with nearly all manufacturers, when the warranty is over, it’s over, even if an obvious engineering or manufacturing error is causing a widespread premature problem. You do get some chance of out-of-warranty assistance if you go to the dealer for all of your service–but I haven’t quite learned this lesson yet.

Would I have bought this car if I’d known it’d be rusting out within six years? As much as I like it, probably not.

Posted in Car Reliability | No Comments »

Consumer Reports recommends only the AWD Lambda crossovers–why?

October 27th, 2009

Consumer Reports released their latest results today, based on a survey that went out last April. TrueDelta’s results are currently two months ahead of CR’s latest, and will soon be five months ahead.

Looking through the latest results, I see largely confirmation of some results we first released over a year ago, such as that for the Jaguar XF.

But I also see a couple of puzzling results. I thought CR had stopped reporting on models that were introduced around the time the survey went out, because owners haven’t had the cars long enough to provide reliable data. But they have a result for the 2010 Honda Insight. It’s much better than average–as expected for cars that were at best a few weeks old. This result appears to be correct based on our data, but this is largely dumb luck on their part.

CR also announced that the all-wheel-drive Chevrolet Traverse, GMC Acadia, and Buck Enclave “Lambda” crossovers have improved to “average,” and so can now be recommended. But not the front-wheel-drive versions–they remain “worse than average” so they are not recommended.

Now, it doesn’t make sense for one car with all the parts of another, but a few more, to be more reliable. My first thought: just another sign that their data are messy.

Then I dug deep into their results, and found a nice addition: they now state the percent difference from average. Still not an absolute repair frequency, but a step in the right direction.

FWD Lambdas: 21% worse than average

AWD Lambdas: 19% worse than average

“Average” runs from 19% below the average to 19% above the average, so the AWD crossovers just barely make the cut, while the FWDs just barely miss it.

In reality, there’s no meaningful difference between the two. But the way CR hides the facts behind its dots and recommendations will lead some people to spend the extra money for all-wheel-drive.

Posted in Car Reliability, Consumer Reports | 2 Comments »

Toyota – longer warranty, big recall

September 30th, 2009

Recently, whenever Toyota has a quality issue Automotive News likes to suggest that this might severely damage their reputation.

The latest case: Toyota is recalling 3.6 million cars because the floormats might slide forward and snag the accelerator. Cases of “unintended acceleration” have caused some accidents and even a few deaths, so they can be very serious.

If the recall fixes the problem, it won’t have a lingering impact. If it doesn’t…ask Audi.

At any rate, this is a safety problem, not a quality problem. Toyota’s quality reputation won’t be significantly harmed by stories in the press all by themselves. Instead, reputations for reliability (or lack thereof) begin with the experiences of people and their close friends and family. As long as many car owners aren’t having bad experiences with Toyota’s cars, their reputation for building reliable cars is safe.

It would help if Toyota went out of its way to take care of those people who do have problems with its cars. Unfortunately, what I’m hearing from Toyota owners suggests that their customer care is, if anything, worse than average.

On a positive note, Toyota has announced that it will soon offer extended warranties up to eight years or 125,000 miles, whichever comes first. Manufacturers’ extended warranties usually go up to 7/100. A willingness to go up to 8/125 with an extended warranty suggests that the cars are now being engineered to go this long without a major problem. Only Honda, which offers an 8/120 extended warranty, offers a warranty nearly this long.

Toyota’s move is consistent with car buyers’ expectations. Another thing I’ve learned from talking with hundreds of car owners: people increasingly expect a car to last at least 120,000 miles without major problems. Getting to 100,000 is no longer sufficient.

Posted in Car Reliability, Car Safety | 1 Comment »

Standard car powertrain warranties–what do they cover?

September 22nd, 2009

For the 2007 model year General Motors (GM) increased the powertrain warranty on its cars to five years or 100,000 miles (5/100), whichever comes first. They felt this warranty was better than Hyundai’s 10/100 powertrain warranty because it transfers to subsequent owners of the car.

Today GM sent a memo to dealers to announce changes to the items covered by the 5/100 powertrain warranty for 2010 model year cars.

Items that are no longer covered include:

1. Fuel system, including fuel pump and fuel injectors

2. Powertrain control modules

3. Throttle body assembly

4. Clutch and pressure plate for manual transmissions

5. Wheel bearings

Items added:

1. Oil lines and oil cooler

2. Crankshaft pulley

3. Clutch master cylinder

First thought: they’re reducing coverage, which isn’t good. The fuel system and wheel bearings are among the powertrain items most likely to fail in the first five years.

Second thought: do competitors’ standard powertrain warranties include these items?

To find out, I called a few dealers and had them check coverage on these items for me. (Note: I did not ask about the crankshaft pulley.)

First off, the powertrain control modules tend to be covered under the 8/80 emissions warranty, and this remains the case with GM.

Beyond this, it turns out that the items covered under the standard powertrain warranty vary quite a bit from manufacturer to manufacturer.

Toyota covers everything in the list except the throttle body assembly.

Honda covers the fuel pump and drive wheel bearings, but nothing else on the list.

Subaru covers the transmission control unit and the wheel bearings.

Hyundai covers only the drive wheel bearings with its non-transferable 10/100 powertrain warranty.

Nissan covers nothing on the list.

Still waiting to hear on Ford.

In other words, it appears that GM’s coverage used to be among the best, perhaps even the best, and will now be among the worst–but that it has plenty of company there.

Posted in Car Warranties | 1 Comment »

GM’s 60-day guarantee

September 15th, 2009

So, GM is going to allow car buyers to return a car in the second month of ownership for a refund.

Or, buyers can opt for an extra $500 rebate instead.

So, how many people are going to forego $500 for the right to return the car?

The fine print, as I understand it:

1. Dealer processing and titling fees are not refundable. Sales tax is.

2. The car must have less than 4,000 miles on it.

3. The car must have at most $200 in wear and tear or damage.

4. Only one return per household.

My wife is still upset that I returned a partially eaten loaf of bread to CostCo. (My argument then: no one liked how it tasted. What’s a satisfaction guarantee for?)

So I’m guessing she won’t let me buy a Corvette Z06 unless I intend to keep it. And if I intended to keep it, I’d opt for the $500 rebate.

Or maybe GM really does believe in its products. A friend of mine once bought a big screen TV right before hosting a Super Bowl party, planning to return it the following week. But, after having that TV in his living room, he couldn’t bring himself to return it.

Maybe GM figures that anyone who bought a GM car planning to return it would find that they couldn’t live without the car?

Posted in Customer Care, Sales Incentives | 2 Comments »

2010 Kia Soul — few repairs so far

September 8th, 2009

We’ve updated the Car Reliability Survey results to include owner experiences through June 2009. With this update, our results are about 14 months ahead of the traditional source of such information.

2010 Kia Soul exteriorPrompt quarterly updates enable TrueDelta to provide initial reliability stats on new models quickly. The August results included the first 2010 model, the Kia Soul. (A big thanks to Kia Soul Forums for helping to get the word out.) Launching an all-new model can be tricky, but so far it appears that Kia has done well with this one. Through the end of June only one of the 38 participating owners had had a repair, to the satellite radio. This works out to 15 successful repair trips per 100 cars per year.

When the stat is updated again in November, it will probably be a bit higher. For July some owners reported repairs to the optional lights on the speakers that beat in time with the music. Kia is aware of this problem, and has issued a TSB for it, so it should only affect early cars.

The November update will include additional 2010s such as the redesigned Mazda3 and Toyota Prius.

Posted in Car Reliability | No Comments »

Sign of the times: the 2010 Mazda CX-7 gets a non-turbo four

September 5th, 2009

Though fuel prices have moderated, as long as the economy remains soft car buyers will be focusing on fuel economy, not horsepower. In response, manufacturers are rushing to offer at least the alternative of a less powerful, more efficient engine.

The Mazda CX-7, a compact SUV, is a case in point. When the CX-7 was introduced three years ago, only one engine was offered: a 244-horsepower turbocharged 2.3-liter four. A good fit for Mazda’s driver-oriented image, but fuel economy has been a weak spot.

For 2010 Mazda has refreshed the CX-7, and the turbo has been joined by a 161-horsepower non-turbo 2.5-liter four. The new engine is good for EPA ratings of 20 city and 28 highway, compared to 17 and 23 for the 2009 turbo. (For 2010 the turbo improves to 18/25.) The new base model weighs 300 pounds less, so acceleration should be similar to that of the non-turbo fours in the Honda CR-V (20/27) and Toyota RAV4 (22/28).

Posted in Gas Mileage, New Car Model Intros | 2 Comments »

Why Toyota is not the new GM

August 31st, 2009

They automotive press is increasingly fond of claiming that Toyota is going down the same path GM went down. But words are cheap.

Did Toyota overexpand their production capacity just in time for a severe market downturn? Absolutely. But a single major strategic miscue does not inevitably lead to long-term decline.

The real thing to pay attention to is not Toyota’s current profitability, but how they react to their problems.

First off, do they react to problems by claiming that they aren’t really problems, or by attempting to fix them? GM has for decades tended to opt for the former. Toyota, in contrast, readily admitted that it had made some mistakes and that it needed to fix these ASAP.

Second, if a solution doesn’t work, do they give up, or make another attempt? GM, time and time again, has poured billions of dollars into “breakthrough” solutions, only to ball them up (or let them die on the vine) when these solutions don’t initially succeed. Toyota, in contrast, has a record of trying over and over. They’re on their third Lexus GS, for example. Keep at it, and they’ll eventually have one that wins over BMW owners.

The key isn’t avoiding mistakes, but learning from mistakes, and not giving up. So far, Toyota seems to still be learning, and persisting. So I do not believe it will go down GM’s path.

Posted in OEM Futures | 4 Comments »

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