Auto industry insanity defined

March 10th, 2010

Edmunds AutoObserver Michelle Krebs, commenting on the termination and replacement of Cadillac’s leadership, concluded, “If GM is going to change and is going to succeed, it must change people.” Paraphrasing Eistein, she added that “Doing the same thing over and over again with the same people in the same positions and expecting a different result is…insane.”

Michelle Krebs is far from the first to suggest that, to survive, a struggling company must replace the executives that oversaw its decline. And she won’t be the last. But this is a superficial solution that, if it is the entire solution, will fail.

A key reason for the popularity of this solution is that it’s easy to observe and easy to comprehend. But it’s based on a very shaky assumption: if an executive didn’t achieve the desired result, then that executive either lacked ability or lacked the proper intent. The latter is addressed through demands for “accountability,” which Krebs also suggests.

But what if these are good, talented people placed in an unwinnable situation? What if the structure and culture of the organization prevent them from doing what they know should be done, and would otherwise do?

This has very much been the case within General Motors. I essentially lived within the GM organization for over a year back in the late 1990s, observing it as an anthropologist would. I encountered, over and over, people who knew the right thing to do, and who wanted to do the right thing, but who were unable to do it because GM’s structure and modes of operation placed endless barriers in their way. As a result, the predominating mood within the organization was one of frustration.

Putting different people in the same organization and expecting a different result is insane.

Actually, the outcome could well be different–but worse. Developiing and building cars in an intensely collaborative exercise. For people to do well within it they must both be experts at what they do and know those they work with very well. Place an expert among strangers, and they will likely discredit and ignore his or her suggestions. You cannot really know who knows what they’re talking about by listening to them for the first time. Knowledge of the extent of others’ knowledge, especially if they’re in a different field than you are, can often only be gained through repeatedly working together.

Bring in new people, and they will know neither their new jobs nor the expertise of those they must work with. This is proven recipe for either indecision or, when the pressure for results is intense, bad decisions. GM and many other companies have gone through this cycle over and over. While GM hasn’t often fired executives outright, as they did in this case, they’ve switched people around many times before, but rarely with the intended results.

Now, perhaps GM’s new leaders aren’t merely changing people. Perhaps they’re also making fundamental changes to the way the organization is structured and the way it operates. Maybe these changes simply aren’t being reported in the press because they are much more difficult to comprehend and communicate than personnel changes. Maybe they’re even the right structural and cultural changes. If so, then changing people might be necessary to keep the new organization from reverting to the old one. As one piece within a much larger solution, personnel changes might make sense.

But, if they’re the entire solution, personnel changes are bound to fail. To repeat: putting different people in the same organization and expecting a different result is insane.

The suggestions I offered to GM nearly a decade ago:

Executive summary of report to GM

Toyotas in “Modern Family” — unsafe?

March 9th, 2010

An article in this week’s Advertising Age and Automotive News (they’re sister publications) investigates why the family in the new hit sitcom ‘Modern Family’ “still drives Toyota product.” The author found it “jarring” that the family “chatted happily while traveling in, of all things, a Toyota.” The answer: Toyota paid for product placement, the contract runs through the end of the season, and many of the episodes have already been shot.

2010 Toyota PriusThe implication: if the show were realistic, the family should be scared to death to be in a Toyota, and only placement dollars are keeping the show from replacing the Toyotas in question with truly safe cars. Overlooked: that even now the problem hasn’t been replicated or definitively identified, and at any rate affects a very small pecentage of cars. Anyone with a sense of probability would be no more concerned about driving a Toyota than any other car.

The article states that, in the past, when a company was hit by a crisis, such as a plane crash, all of that company’s ads were usually pulled as soon as possible. The author doesn’t seem to realize that this was done for the sake of the advertiser, in case it wanted to alter the message sent or wait until the crisis was over to resume advertising. It wasn’t done to distance the network from the advertiser, as the author assumes when asking why the network has risked “negative rub-off” by linking its hit show “to the brouhaha.”

It makes more sense to ask, as the article also does, why Toyota hasn’t requested that its cars be removed from the show. The answer in this case is obvious: the last thing Toyota would want to do is imply that its cars are too unsafe to drive by pulling them from the show.

Ultimately there’s no conflict, and so no real point to the article. The network wants the Toyotas in the show because they get product placement money and they don’t want to reshoot any scenes. Toyota wants to keep its cars in the show because it’s effective advertising and to do otherwise would increase generally unfounded suspicions about their safety. And there’s no valid reason the cars shouldn’t still be in the show, except that the scattered explicit product references can be mildly irritating.

What I personally found “jarring:” in the most recent episode the family let its oldest daughter, who just got her license on her third attempt and who is clearly not a safe driver, go off by herself in their brand-new Sienna minivan. Having drivers like this girl on the road without any supervision–now that’s unsafe.

Buick Regal pricing analysis

March 3rd, 2010

In recent years Opel, the German subsidiary of General Motors, has offered some very desireable cars. But the company has rarely offered these cars in the U.S. and when it has they have not sold well. A decade ago Americans failed to buy the Cadillac Catera, and more recently they left the Saturn ASTRA sitting on lots.

Opel’s latest hit, the midsize Insignia, was supposed to come to the U.S. as a second-generation Saturn AURA. But then Saturn was scrapped, and so we, like China, will receive the Insignia as a new Buick Regal.

2011 Buick RegalFor the first model year, until a production line is set up in North America, the new Regal will be produced in Germany. Because the dollar remains weak compared to the euro, GM’s production costs will be high, and there is a clear need to price the car as high as possible. At the same time, it must be priced competitively, and not too close to the related but larger and more luxurious Buick LaCrosse.

Well, pricing has been announced, so we have our answer. One tactic: no “CX” base trim will be offered in the Regal’s first year. Instead, initially we’ll only receive the mid-level CXL.

The new Buick Regal will only be offered with four-cylinder engines, and at first only with a 182-horsepower 2.4-liter. The same engine was just added to the larger Buick LaCrosse’s powertrain options, though only in its CX trim. Comparing the Regal CXL to the LaCrosse CX (with alloy wheels and Comfort and Convenience Package to make features comparable), the Regal lists for $1,250 less. Adjusting for remaining feature differences widens the gap to about $1,800.

Similarly load up both Buicks in CXL trim (in which case the LaCrosse has a 255-horsepower 3.0-liter V6) and the LaCrosse lists for $3,355 more. Adjusting for feature differences–but not the engine difference–cuts the Regal’s advantage to about $2,000. If the 3.0-liter V6 was a more impressive performer in the LaCrosse, this would be too close for comfort.

Since it’s not far below the LaCrosse, and it has a semi-premium brand, the Regal must be much more expensive than its Chevrolet cousin, the Malibu, right? Especially since the Malibu is based on the first-generation Epsilon platform, and won’t switch to the Epsilon II platform that underpins the new Regal until the 2012 model year.

Well, no. The Regal CXL lists for $430 LESS than the Malibu LTZ (after adding a compact spare to the Chevrolet, since one is standard on the Buick). Adjust for feature differences, and the difference ends up $70 in the Malibu’s favor. So, before incentives, the two cars are very closely priced. In this case, it’s the Regal, no contest. The only compelling reason to get the Malibu instead: if you want a V6.

Buick sees the Acura TSX as a close competitor, since it is also a relatively compact “near luxury” sedan and until recently was only available with a four-cylinder engine. Add a sunroof to the Regal, since one is standard on the TSX, and the Buick lists for $2,125 less. Adjust for remaining feature differences, and the gap shrinks to about $1,400. Compare invoice prices instead of MSRP, and the difference is less than $300. Very close.

Buick isn’t the only one gunning for the TSX’s buyers. Suzuki also pits its new Kizashi sedan against the Acura. The Kizashi, like the TSX, is more compact and more nicely furnished than the typical midsize car. Like the new Buick Regal, is also only available with a four-cylinder engine. A Kizashi SLS (the top trim level) with CVT, floormats, and metallic paint lists for $1,506 less than a Regal CXL with sunroof. Adjust for the Suzuki’s extra features (it is very well endowed for a car in this price range) and its price advantage widens to about $2,300. But the Kizashi is a half-size smaller, and few car buyers even know it exists.

The 2011 Buick Regal will not only be German-engineered. It will also be German-made. So some people might cross-shop the Volkswagen Passat. A Passat with optional 18-inch alloys (standard on the Regal) lists for $550 more than a Regal with the optional sunroof (standard on the VW). Pretty close. The Regal still includes about $1,100 in additional equipment, so its price advantage is about $1,700. Pretty good–but recall that the VW has a more powerful turbocharged, 200-horsepower turbocharged 2.0-liter four-cyliner engine. A 2.0-liter turbo four good for 220 horsepower will later be offered in the Regal, but its additional cost will easily wipe out this advantage. So adjust for the engine difference as well and these two cars also become very close in price.

Overall, the 2011 Buick Regal isn’t a steal. Unless GM ends up offering it with large rebates, which doesn’t seem likely, it is priced about the same as its closest competitors once feature differences are adjusted for. So the Regal isn’t likely to be bought instead of a Malibu, TSX, or Passat on the basis of price alone. Instead, it’s going to be a matter of which car is most appealing. Which, if Buick is going to survive as a semi-premium brand, is how it should be.

To run your own price comparisons:

Car price comparisons

Specs for 2001s added to the database

March 3rd, 2010

It was long overdue, and I’ve now added bodystyle and powertrain specs for 2001 models to the database. What this means–it’s now possible to participate with 2001s in all surveys, including the “Why (Not) This Car?” survey, Gas Mileage Survey, and Car Repair History Survey.

It took me about 33 hours to enter this data, which is why it didn’t happen sooner. I plan to also add the 2000 model year, but that will probably be as far back as we’ll go for all surveys.

The main survey, the Car Reliability Survey, will continue to cover from the 1995 model year on.

2010 Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain–shaky launch

March 1st, 2010

With the 2010 Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain General Motors finally figured out what car buyers are looking for in a compact crossover. Dealers have had trouble keeping them on lots. But did GM work out all of the bugs prior to launching the vehicle?

With prompt quarterly updates, TrueDelta’s Car Reliability Survey can answer this question well ahead of other sources. The latest update, which includes owner experiences through the end of 2009, reports that 2010 Equinox and Terrain owners have been experiencing 94 repair trips per 100 cars per year. This is worse than average. This said, the reported problems have generally been minor and fixed quickly on the first attempt.

Other recent GM crossover launches, including the 2007 GMC Acadia and Saturn Outlook and the 2008 Saturn VUE, had similar stats at this point. Both later improved to average, and the same will likely happen with the new Equinox and Terrain.

While most recent GM launches have been worse than average initially, not all have been. The new Chevrolet Camaro has fared better: with 41 repair trips per 100 cars it’s about average, and the most common repair has involved loose bolts for the rear spoiler.

With prompt quarterly updates, we’ll track all of these cars closely as they get more miles on them. The stats for the Equinox and Terrain could improve as soon as the next update, in May.

Car Reliability Survey results

AW: no need to worry about Jaguar reliability. Really?reliability

March 1st, 2010

In its flash drive of the new Jaguar XJ, Autoweek suggests, “Promising results from the 2009 J.D. Power Vehicle Dependability and Sales Satisfaction surveys should help reassure buyers concerned with dependability.”

Unfortunately, the J.D. Power Sales Satisfaction Survey has absolutely nothing to do with dependability. And the 2009 Vehicle Dependability Survey covered 2006 cars, and so none of the models Jaguar currently offers in the U.S. With the new XJ, they’ve now all been redesigned.

In contrast, the Jaguar XF has done poorly in all reliability surveys, beginning with TrueDelta’s Car Reliability Survey, which runs as much as a year ahead of the others.

In TrueDelta’s latest update the XF has improved to the point where it’s “only” about 50% worse than the average car, but it had a very rough first year.

How will the XJ fare? We hope to have results first, as we did with the XF. Just a matter of getting enough owners involved, which can be a challenge with a low-volume luxury sedan. Know someone who has bought one? Please send them here:

About the Car Reliability Survey

60,000th car enrolled

February 28th, 2010

Early this morning the 60,000th car was enrolled in the Car Reliability Survey. It had been only 13 days since the 59,000th was enrolled, a new record.

We currently have just over 49,300 members, so some time in March we’ll grow past the 50,000 mark.

With the number of participants growing so quickly, the May results will be the most comprehensive yet.

One again CR successfully sells old wine in a new bottle

February 23rd, 2010

Consumer Reports announced its Annual Auto Issue today. As in past years, the press treats the reliability ratings in it as news, even though they’re the same ratings that have been around since the New Car Preview reached newsstands last October. And are based on a survey that was sent out nearly a year ago, in April 2009.

For some reason, no one ever mentions this. Certainly not CR. But not the media, either.

So we get forum posts like this one. It’s easy to understand why people, hearing there’s a new Auto Issue, think that the results in it are new. It’s just not remotely accurate.

TrueDelta recently updated its reliability stats to include owner experiences through the end of 2009. So they’re based on data that is over eight months ahead of CR’s.

When shopping for a car, do you want to know how it was faring a year ago, when it was a year younger, or how it’s been doing lately?

Car Reliability Survey results

Updated Car Reliability Survey stats cover through December 31, 2009

February 17th, 2010

We’ve updated the Car Reliability Survey results to include owner experiences through December 31, 2009.

The new email process, which reduced the number of emails to members whose responses were up-to-date, was a big success. For the past year the response rate has been about 36 percent. This time around it was 38 percent. In absolute terms, we received responses for over 15,400 cars, up from 13,140 three months ago.

This was enough to provide full reliability stats for 355 car models, compared to 295 three month ago, and partial results for another 291. Coverage for the “odds” stats increased from 99 to 125.

I’ll cover some notable results in future blog entries.

A big thank you to everyone who helped make these results possible. The more owners participate, the more information we can provide.

2010 NAIAS: 2012 Ford Focus and 2011 Mustang engines

February 10th, 2010

Okay, I’ve been busy, and my NAIAS overage has been the most drawn out on the entire Internet.

I’ve made it to F.

2011 Ford Mustang 5.0-liter V8Ford announced that the 2011 Mustang will be offered with two new DOHC engines that promise to cause major headaches for the Chevrolet Camaro and Dodge Challenger, a 305-horsepower 3.7-liter V6 and a 412-horsepower 5.0-liter V8. Yes, the 5.0 badges will be back. By nearly all accounts the 2010 Mustang already outhandles its primary competitors. Add nearly 100 horsepower to both of its volume engines, and it’ll run away from them in a straight line as well.

2012 Ford Focus exterior photo by Eric Merrill

Oddly, I’m more interested in driving Ford’s main auto show debut, the 2012 Focus. The Focus was popular with enthusiasts in SVT form from 2002 through 2004. Then Ford steadily drained all fun from the car with the 2005 refresh and the roundly panned 2008 redesign.

2012 Ford Focus interiorFor 2012, we’ll once again be getting the same Focus Europe gets. The exterior design is a little busy, but much more stylish than Chevrolet’s upcoming Cruze and better proportioned than the smaller 2011 Ford Fiesta. Inside, you’ll find a very European interior with comfortable, supportive seats front and rear. Ford knows how to make a car handle well when they want to. The main question in my mind: will the new 155-horsepower 2.0-liter direct-injected four-cylinder engine be as good as the rest of the car? A sport model with a more powerful engine is likely.

site and logo design by abundant designs

blog powered by WordPress