Toyota: illusions of trust, gone

February 5th, 2010

Based on the emails I’ve been receiving from TrueDelta’s members, I have underestimated the impact of the unintended acceleration fiasco on Toyota’s future sales. This fiasco is going to hurt Toyota, possibly for years to come. The problem isn’t that many people feel that Toyotas are unsafe. Most seem to recognize that a very small percentage of Toyotas have suffered from unintended acceleration. But they’re hearing about problem after problem, so Toyota’s quality seems to be lower. Most of all, Toyota’s public statements have seemed dodgy, and people seem to feel that they cannot trust the company to keep owners’ best interests or even their safety in mind.

In other words, they’re feeling about Toyota much like they’ve felt for decades about Detroit. That the company is focused on sales and profits rather than the owners of its cars. That Toyota does not really care about them.

The odd thing here is that many people previously felt that Toyota could be trusted more than the typical auto company. Why? Because of their reputation for reliability? Because of the Prius?

The fact of the matter is that, when car owners have had problems with Toyotas, Toyota has been at least as bad as the average car company in taking care of them. Conducting TrueDelta’s Car Reliability Survey, I hear customer care horror stories involving virtually every manufacturer. If a car has a problem you feel it should not have had out of warranty, and you haven’t been regularly servicing your car at a particular dealer, that dealer will tell the manufacturer you’re not a valued customer, and you’ll get little or no out-of-warranty assistance. This is as true of Toyota as any other make. Have a problem that requires special help, and you’ll quickly learn how little they care. Toyota’s advantage was that its cars have been (and in many cases continue to be) more reliable, so people had fewer opportunities to experience how little they really care.

Among mainstream automakers (I have less information on luxury makes), Honda seems to be better than the others in readily paying for repairs after the warranty ends, buying back troublesome cars (always with a confidentiality clause, so you won’t hear about them), and in other ways taking care of customers.

But even with Honda I don’t get the sense that they do these things because they care more. The confidentiality clause when they buy back a car indicates their true interest. They simply concluded some time ago that taking care of customers would earn goodwill and, perhaps most importantly, protect their reputation and so earn them more money in the long run. And it has. It’s simply smart business. Other car companies don’t actually care less. They just aren’t as smart in this regard.

Toyota, though, behaves no differently than GM, Ford, Chrysler, Nissan, or VW and has not in recent memory been more trustworthy than these companies. But apparently many people felt they were more trustworthy anyway. This illusion is now, in many cases, gone.

What does this matter? Well, when you trust someone to do the right thing, you don’t pay nearly as much attention to what they’re actually doing. You buy the car blindly. Going forward, car buyers will be scrutinizing both Toyota and its cars more closely. Those who want to buy a car with a minimum of research and thought are now much more likely to go elsewhere.

New survey system a success

February 3rd, 2010

Three months ago I changed the survey system to greatly reduce the number of emails to Car Reliability Survey participants. And I’ve been very worried about this change ever since. With fewer emails might we end up with fewer responses? Or fewer repairs being reported, and so lower quality data? These are the questions that keep me awake at night.

Well, the quarter is over, so we have our answer. The percentage of people reporting repair trips in a given month has remained around 10 percent, so the quality of the data has not been affected. The quantity, on the other hand…

For over a year the response rate has been about 36 percent, so this has been our target. Last July the response rate was 36.7 percent, and in October it was 35.7 percent, a bit short.

Last month it was 38.0 percent, a level we haven’t seen since April 2008. Among new members, the response rate was a huge 56.0 percent. Even among members who joined over three years ago–many of these email addresses are probably no longer being checked regularly–the response rate was 28.3 percent. In absolute terms, our goal last month was 14,650 responses. We ended up with 15,424.

The current results include 295 models, plus partial results for another 290. It looks like the February update will include 356 models, plus partial results for another 287. Thanks to the higher response rate, well over half of our stats will now be full results.

So now I can worry about other things…

Has Toyota’s quality control declined? Or is the real problem the company’s reaction?

February 1st, 2010

Over the last few months, the media have become increasingly critical of Toyota and its handling of the unintended acceleration problem. Recently, Ralph Nader joined the fray, charging that Toyota has lost control of its quality control process. Has it? Or is this problem indicative of a broader, deeper problem in how cars are currently developed, everywhere? Should this problem have been caught during development? The more serious concern could be how well Toyota and other auto makers learn of and fix the problems that customers experience.

Consider a few facts. First off, if the quality control lapse were remotely obvious, Toyota would have quickly pinpointed it once the reports of unintended acceleration started rolling in. They haven’t. First, back in October 2009, they blamed–and recalled–the floormats. Then, in January 2010, they blamed–and recalled–the gas pedal mechanism. Even now some instances and historical overviews indicate that neither of these is the real problem, and that said real problem might be in the software.

So the source of the problem hasn’t been easy to find, even once Toyota was aware of the problem. Discovering it during development, when not aware of the problem and so not looking for its source, would have been highly unlikely.

Second, the problem is rare. About 5,400,000 cars have been recalled for a problem that has been reported about 2,000 times. Even assuming that the problem has occurred ten times for every time that has been reported, we have something that happens in one out of every 250 cars.

To discover this problem, you would need to test several hundred cars, perhaps even several thousand cars. Well, these days all car manufacturers build far fewer physical prototypes than they used to. Much testing that used to occur in the real world now occurs in computer simulations. I doubt anyone still builds even one hundred pre-production “alpha” prototypes. A few dozen, perhaps.

Once production starts a few hundred “pilot” cars are distributed to employees to drive and note any problems. This brings up the third piece of the puzzle: the amount of time the car must be tested before the problem occurs. This clearly isnt a problem that happens every time the car is driven, or even during the first 10,000 miles.

During development, only a small number of prototypes are driven more than a few thousand miles. And hardly any of the pilot build cars accumulate more than a few thousand miles. Compressed development schedules play a role. Led by Toyota, auto makers spend far less time developing a car than they used to. This translates to less time for a problem to appear in a prototype.

Put all of the pieces together, and any problem that strikes a very small percentage of cars after these cars have been on the road for a while is not likely to be discovered during the car’s development.

Of course, there could yet be a smoking gun: it could turn out that someone did notice the unintended acceleration problem within Toyota, and they either decided not to pursue it or tried to pursue it and were blocked by others within the company. But there’s no hint of this yet.

Move beyond product development and Toyota becomes more culpable. The pedal recall includes one five-year-old model, the 2005 Avalon. Some reported cases include 2005 Camrys (though these aren’t included in the pedal recall). Even if a problem that affects a small percentage of cars didn’t pop up during development, it clearly started popping up once hundreds of thousands of cars were in customers’ hands. Dealers must have been aware of multiple cases of unintended acceleration by 2007 or 2008, and perhaps even back in 2005.

What system does Toyota have in place to learn of the problems car owners are experiencing and rapidly develop engineering fixes for them? Judging from responses to TrueDelta’s Car Reliability Survey, Toyota generally does a good job identifying and fixing common problems early in a model’s run. Which is why Toyotas generally continue to perform well in reliability surveys. Common problems are caught and fixed. In this sense, Toyota has not lost control of its quality control.

But the system failed in this case—which notably does not involve a common problem. Why? Does Toyota’s system focus much less attention on rare problems, even if they can result in fatal accidents? Does it track cars less closely after the first year or two of ownership? Either of these could be a contributing factor. But is anyone asking these questions?

These aren’t only questions for Toyota. All car makers should take Toyota’s current predicament as a wakeup call to improve their systems for learning of the rare but potentially fatal problems car owners are experiencing, thoroughly researching these problems, then fixing them.

2010 NAIAS: The Granite concept, a car from GMC?

January 26th, 2010

Even before GM killed Pontiac it was focusing the brand more tightly on performance cars like the Solstice and G8. So the Pontiac Torrent was replaced by the GMC Terrain and the Vibe was rumored to be in its final generation.

With Pontiac winding down, the Vibe is now definitely in its final model year. But while the Terrain fits the GMC (Truck) brand better than the Torrent ever fit in with Pontiac, can a compact crossover possibly make sense as a GMC–which is supposed to be about “professional grade” trucks?

GMC Granite concept, photo by Eric Merrill

At the 2010 NAIAS GMC provided an answer, or at least the beginning of one, with the introduction of the Granite concept. This concept, based on the Delta II compact car platform like the upcoming Chevrolet Cruze sedan and Orlando crossover, seems fairly certain for production, given the need to replace the Vibe.

Of course, GM could have opted to create a Buick for this segment. But they’ve apparently glanced about and noted the popularity of compact boxes like the Scion xB, Nissan cube, and Kia Soul. Buicks are curvy. A box is clearly a better fit with GMC.

The Granite is an attractive box as boxes go. There’s some similarity to the Jeep Compass and Patriot. If anything, Granite is more car-like and style-driven than either. The Patriot has only been accepted as a Jeep by some of the brand’s fans, and the Compass by hardly anyone. Will car buyers be any more open to a GMC that’s much more car than truck?

In this case, it might help that GMC lacks Jeep’s fanatical base. People think less about what a GMC is, and so might be more open to something that stretches the brand’s identity.

NAIAS 2010: XTS, a Cadillac Avalon?

January 22nd, 2010

Back in the early 2000s Cadillac excited driving enthusiasts by pledging to become a world-class luxury car manufacturer by spending billions to develop all-new rear wheel-drive cars that shared little with other General Motors product. Problem was, aside from the CTS these new models sold poorly, and GM ran out of money.

So, for at least the next five years, and probably longer, Cadillac will be redirecting its focus to the more traditional luxury car buyers that have historically purchased its cars. Though a rear-wheel-drive “Alpha” platform compact sedan is reportedly still on the way, other Cadillacs will be based on front-wheel-drive platforms. The 2010 SRX was the first of these products. The 2012 XTS, introduced in concept form at the 2010 NAIAS, will be the next.

For the past few years Cadillac has wavered among a number of different ways to replace the slow-selling STS rear-wheel-drive sedan and outmoded DTS front-wheel-drive sedan. When the money ran out, a rear-drive replacement was shelved, and the XTS received the green light.

2012 Cadillac XTS exterior, photo by Eric Merrill

Early word was that the XTS would be based, like most other recent GM mid-size and up sedans, on the Epsilon platform. In some iterations this platform doesn’t translate to a roomy interior, but GM pledged that the Cadillac variant would be larger.

How much larger? Well, while the XTS shares its 101.7-inch wheelbase with the 2010 Buick LaCrosse, the largest Epsilon-based sedan offered to date, it’s over half a foot longer (203.5 inches) and nearly two inches wider (74.8 inches). And to the eye the difference between the two cars appears even larger, courtesy of the Cadillac’s squarer lines. Compared to the DTS, the XTS is four inches shorter in both wheelbase and length but just as wide. Add in more upright side windows and an interior designed to maximize perceived room, and the XTS should feel roomy inside.

2012 Cadillac XTS interiorI wanted to check this out at the show, but when I asked if I could sit in it the Cadillac designer said, “We’d prefer not.” This was a one-off prototype, and potentially fragile.

Clearly, the XTS is much more a direct replacement for the DTS than for the STS. Cadillac clearly intends it as a luxury sedan, and not a sport sedan. Aside from the platform, the styling is much more conservative than the CTS and STS. The most radical element: headlights that extend nearly halfway to the A-pillar.

In fact, my first thought upon seeing the XTS was “Cadillac Avalon.” Like the XTS, Toyota’s Avalon is based on a modest midsize family car platform that has been expanded as much as possible and given more upscale, more conservative styling. Both cars are aimed at traditional luxury buyers, though the Avalon isn’t nearly as fancy inside–or as pricey. Perhaps because the targets are similar, and both seek to maximize interior room, the car’s basic shapes are similar.

In a departure from both the STS and the DTS, no V8 will be offered in the XTS. The concept car had a 3.6-liter hybrid powertrain, and a non-hybrid 3.6 as used in the CTS and LaCrosse is virtually a given. Perhaps there will be a turbo V6 to go up against Lincoln’s MKS EcoBoost. But, as with the Lincoln, handling won’t be much of a priority.

The 2012 Cadillac XTS will probably strongly appeal to traditional luxury sedan buyers–reaction was positive at the show–so in this sense it will probably be a success. It’s just not nearly as dramatic as the hardcore “art and science” Cadillacs, and as a driving enthusiast I’m saddened by Cadillac’s current direction.

NAIAS 2010: an appealing Chevrolet Aveo

January 21st, 2010

At NAIAS this year, General Motors introduced a redesigned Chevrolet Aveo. With the even smaller Spark on the way, the Aveo is growing a bit. The car was introduced in concept RS form, with large brakes, even larger wheels, upholstered instrument panel, and centrally-mounted dual exhaust tips. The concept is powered by a 138-horsepower turbocharged four. This engine seems much more likely for production than the brakes.

2011 Chevrolet Aveo RS conceptWe’ve seen the overall shape before in the Toyota Matrix, Pontiac Vibe, Mazda3, and so forth. But the proportions and detailing of this exterior are very nicely done–and better than in the cars just listed. That said, will anyone notice? Inside, even though the upholstered IP is unlikely to make it to production, the new Aveo is clearly much more stylish than the current one.

Continuing with the Aveo name could be risky, as Aveos to date have been relentlessly panned by the automotive press. Chevrolet has, after all,, decided to create a new name, Cruze, for the Cobalt’s replacement. And “Cobalt” was itself a replacement for “Cavalier.” Well, I never liked the idea of junking a model name and starting over. At some point you’ve got to stop pretending you can just ball up the old one and start fresh, and instead dig in your heels and fight. Perhaps Chevrolet is finally doing this.

Will the new Aveo be good enough that we’ll forget the current one? That they’re even bothering to display a sport version is a good sign. I’ll gladly reserve judgment until I can drive one. The production version should arrive at dealers this summer.

Consumer Guide ceases print publication

January 21st, 2010

Back in 1983, when I first became strongly interested in cars, I saw Consumer Guide’s annual guide to car prices on a newsstand while on a family trip from Virginia to South Carolina, and bought it.

There have been a number of printed car price guides over the years, but I always strongly preferred Consumer Guide’s format, which printed all trim levels on the same page. I bought this guide every year from 1983 through 2009. Still have them all on my bookshelf. Whenever I need to look up some quick specs or pricing for a past year, this is what I use.

Then I went to buy the 2010 edition, and could not find it. So I called the company, and apparently the 2009 edition was their last in print. The online version was sold to howstuffworks some time ago. It has much of the same format, but they’ve been steadily drifting away from that format.

So, is there another print publication with the same information, or is print simply dead?

NAIAS: Buick Regal GS

January 15th, 2010

Continuing my brand by brand coverage of NAIAS…

BMW introduced the ActiveE, an all-electric 1-Series coupe. It looks much like a 1-Series coupe with bizarre graphics. BMW claims 0-60 will be under 9 seconds and range will be 100 miles. I’ll be more excited when one’s available for purchase and I can drive one. Which won’t be this car, but some future production vehicle based on insight gained from this concept.

Buick Regal GS conceptBuick introduced a likely high-performance GS variant of the upcoming new Regal. The GS was rumored to share a 335-horsepower turbo V6 with the top Opel Insignia. Though allegedly this engine was in the car shown, we’ll instead get a 255-horsepower version of GM’s 2.0-liter turbo four. More impressive: 295 foot-pounds of torque and, to handle it, all-wheel-drive. The 220-horsepower version of this engine already slated for the Regal is paired with front-wheel-drive. In either case a manual transmission will be offered in addition to the automatic dealers will actually stock.

I’ve seen the Regal before in Chinese trim. In U.S. spec it’s at least as attractive, both inside and out, with a flavor that’s more German than American. The key question in my mind: will the manual shift and steering have the direct feel I like in a performance car? I also hope the gearing is better than on the related Saab 9-3 Turbo X I had for a week last year.

The front seats in the regular Regal, the one we could sit in, don’t have much in the way of lateral support. The back seat barely fits an average-sized adult. For more room you’ll want the LaCrosse. As in the LaCrosse, the trunk is very narrow.

Buick Regal lug nut coversI found one nit to pick with this car: cheap-looking plastic caps over the lug nuts. I mentioned this to a GM engineer. His response: exposed chrome lug nuts like those on the LaCrosse tend to rust, and become difficult to remove. But is there no more attractive solution?

Best bit of the new Audi A8: seat controls

January 14th, 2010

Audi and BMW have been competing to see who can offer the largest number of seat adjustments in their large luxury sedans. A major challenge: how to make all of these adjustments easy to control.

2011 Audi A8 seat controlsPrevious solutions, especially that on the previous generation BMW 7-Series, have made it difficult to figure out–and then remember–how to make some of the less often used adjustments. Buttons often have to serve multiple duties, and these have been difficult to sort out whether they are located on the side of the center console or the side of the seat.

2011 Audi A8 seat control screenAudi’s solution in the new A8 is the best yet. Initially I couldn’t figure out the purpose of the wheel the encircles what appears to be a four-way lumbar control. Then I noticed that an image of the seat was displayed on the LCD screen in the center stack, with the selected area of the seat highlighted in red.

So you use the wheel to select the area of the seat–lumbar, upper seatback, side bolsters, thigh bolsters, thigh support, or seatbelt height–then make the adjustment using the shared four-way control.

It has taken decades, but auto makers are finally figuring out how to improve ergonomics through the use of display screens.

NAIAS 2010 impressions: Audi A8 best in show?

January 13th, 2010

I attended the 1.5 press days of the North American International (i.e. Detroit) Auto Show earlier this week. You’ll find detailed coverage on many other sites. Here I’ll just post a few of my personal impressions, covering the makes in alphabetical order.

First, a general comment. Like last year, but perhaps to an even greater degree, the auto show had fewer car makers participating and fewer journalists in attendance–perhaps half 2007. There were no fancy presentations. Only the Germans seemed to be serving fancy food. And the single major post-show party, hosted by Hyundai, was a far cry from Chrysler’s Firehouse party of past years.

Acura gave no presentation. I checked out the ZDX for the first time. Car & Driver quipped that ZDX should stand for “zero demand expected.” After all, how many people are looking for a vehicle that combines the size and mass of an SUV with the practicality of a sports car? The interior is perhaps Acura’s nicest yet, with a leather upholstered IP lower and console. But it was literally a pain for me to get into and out of the back seat–the rear roofline is very low.

Audi showed a TT-sized electric sports car. The world hardly needs another expensive electric sports car, so I ignored it.

2011 Audi A8 exterior--best in show?I paid much more attention to the new Audi A8. I personally find the new sheetmetal unattractive, or at least boring, and certainly far less distinctive and attractive than the current A8. The front end is too massive, the wheel openings cut too high into the body (for overly large wheels?), and the beltline (base of the side windows) and the character line below it are too horizontal. At best it’s boring.

2011 Audi A8 interiorSo I was shocked when a group of distinguished designers voted the new Audi A8 the best production design introduced at the show. With few new designs introduced, they didn’t have many to select from. But still, this one? I’d have gone with the 2012 Ford Focus. Clearly these designers know nothing about design!

Or perhaps they were focusing on the interior, which is among the best. But then so is the current A8’s. The new interior isn’t significantly different than the current one, with one notable exception that I’ll discuss in a separate post.

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