Updated Car Reliability Survey results

August 16th, 2010

Last month members provided 17,861 responses to the Car Reliability Survey, a response rate of 36.2%. The updated car reliability stats include full results for 458 cars, and partial results for another 351. This compares to 404 full results and 320 partial results three months ago.

The updated results cover owner experiences through the end of June 2010. Other sources of reliability information won’t cover the most recent months until the summer or fall of next year.

With this update we have more solid results for a number of 2010 models and an initial look at some early 2011s.

Audi’s newest A4 and S4 (now reported separately) continue to be better than average, though they might be drifting upward to join the 2009 in “about average.” More repairs are being reported for the related Q5, and while still “about average” any further increase will make it significantly worse than the average.

Few repairs have been reported for the 2010 BMW 3-Series. But we had far fewer responses than for earlier model years, so it’s too soon to tell whether the 335i’s high pressure fuel pump problems have been resolved. Pumps continue to fail in the 2007s through 2009s, though it does seem that if a pump lasts for 10,000 miles it’s no longer likely to fail.

The 2010 GM products we had enough responses for–the compact and large crossovers and the Camaro–are all about average, and not far from “better than average.” The Camaro would be “better than average” if not for a common problem with a loose screw in the spoiler.

Fords seem to be similarly about average and not far from “better than average,” with one exception. The new Taurus is close to “worse than average” thanks to a common problem with chrome trim peeling off the tail lights. The PTU seal might still be prone to failure in the Edge, but we don’t yet have enough responses to be sure.

Hondas remain generally better than average, though problems with the tire pressure monitor in the Fit bumped it to “average.” Earlier years have been excellent, so the 2010 is expected to improve in future updates.

Hyundai’s record is mixed. We do not yet have enough data on the new 2011 Sonata and 2010 Tucson to provide full results for these models. The data we do have suggests that in their first model year they’re about average. The Elantra Touring is similarly about average. The Genesis sedan has improved to better than average in its second model year. 2009s with the Technology Package continue to have more problems. The reported repair frequency for the Genesis Coupe continues to increase, and it’s now quite a bit worse than average. Some owners are very dissatisfied with their cars and with Hyundai’s response. Hyundai appears to have launched this one too soon.

The Jaguar XF has improved little if any in its second model year, and remains much worse than average. Minor electrical problems are common.

Kia’s record is much the same as Hyundai’s. We don’t have quite enough data for a full result for the 2011 Sorento, but what we do have suggests that it’s about average–just like the new Sonata and Sorento. The Forte, new for 2010, is similarly about average. The Soul has improved to better than average now that some intial bugs have been resolved.

We don’t have enough data yet for a full result for the new Land Rover LR4. What we do have suggests that it is considerably more reliable than the LR3 it replaced, and most likely about average.

Very few repairs continue to be reported for the 2010 Mazda3–excellent for a car in its first year. The 2009 Mazda6 has settled in not far from the average.

The 2010 Mercedes-Benz E-Class and GLK are both about average. As is the 2009 C-Class, the first model year for that car. All of these models are doing far better than the GL-Class in its first two model years.

The 2010 Nissans are consistently better than average. However, we only had enough responses for full results for the cube and Rogue. A number of models started the 2010 model year relatively late, so we’ll have full results for them with the next update, in November. Looking at the 2009s, the Altima, Maxima, Murano, and Rogue are all better than average, while the 370Z and Versa are about average but not far from “better than average.”

A number of owners of the redesigned 2010 Subaru Legacy and Outback have reported problems with steering vibrations. A few cars have even been bought back when these problems could not be fixed. Even so, the reported repair frequency is better than average. The Forester is also better than average.

Despite the recent media circus and claims that Toyota’s quality has declined, the 2010s continue to be consistently much better than average in TrueDelta’s Car Reliability Survey. We don’t have full results for many 2010 models yet, but the data we do have strongly suggest that these cars rarely require repairs. Looking across all recent model years, Toyotas fare better than any other make.

The 2010 Volkswagen CC appear to have fewer problems than the 2009, and is about average. The MkVI Golf, GTI, and Jetta SportWagen continue to lag the MkV they replaced. The gas models are about average. The TDI remains worse than average, but not by nearly the same degree as three month ago. An early common problem with the O2 sensor has likely been resolved, so this result should continue to converge with that for the gas models. The reported repair frequency for the Tiguan has jumped quite a bit with this update, and while “about average” is not far from “worse than average.”

Finally, the 2010 Volvo XC60 is about average so far.

For detailed results for all model years:

Car Reliability Survey results

Infiniti goes a bit far in the other direction

August 13th, 2010

When the Infiniti G35 was introduced as an early 2003, its 3.5-liter V6 was a major selling point. At the time competitors were selling more expensive cars with smaller engines. Then for the 2008 model year (2009 for the sedan) they enlarged the engine to 3.7 liters, perhaps to stay a step ahead of competitors that had come out with their own 3.5s.

But the market has shifted, and people are seeking fuel economy that the big six cannot provide. So, for 2011 Infiniti will offer a G25 powered by a 218-horsepower 2.5-liter V6, which will be among the smallest sixes offered in the U.S.

Infiniti G-SeriesI fear that with this engine they have gone too far in the other direction. Since 2006 the competing Lexus IS has been offered with two sixes, one a 2.5 and the other a 3.5. After driving both, I concluded that for most people the 3.0 they have failed to offer in the IS, but have offered in other products, would hit a sweet spot.

The same is likely for the G, as it’s larger and a little heavier than the Lexus. Nissan’s V6 was sweetest in its old 3.0 form. And, in a roughly 3,500-pound car, a 3.0 would get fuel economy at least as good as an overworked 2.5.

For 2011 Infiniti will also launch a new “performance line” by offering the G37 coupe with a 348-horsepower V6. Good to hear–I suggested that this engine would have been welcome in last spring’s Anniversary Edition–but the regular 3.7 already offered far more power than most buyers need.

So how about a G30, Infiniti?

Ford’s powertrain pricing games

July 26th, 2010

Last week Ford angled for a big PR splash by announcing that the Lincoln MKZ hybrid would be priced the same as the regular MKZ–implying that they were giving away the hybrid bits for free.

The media, always looking for an eye-grabbing headline, bought it. Overlooked: the MKZ hybrid has a four-cylinder engine, while the base MKZ engine is a V6. In the Fusion, the 3.0-liter V6 costs $1,600. Figure another $1,000 for the 3.5-liter V6, and they’re essentially charging $2,600 for the hybrid bits. Which wouldn’t be newsworthy.

Breaking up the site

July 13th, 2010

When I first designed the site’s pages we had a small percentage of the survey responses we now have. So I didn’t do anything fancy, and simply displayed all of the data for a model on some pages.

As data have accumulated, these pages have gotten longer and longer, and slower and slower to load. Lately the repair history pages for popular car models like the BMW 3-Series and Honda Accord have taken over three minutes to load, which is far beyond acceptable.

So I found some time the other night (until 4:20AM) to break up the repair history pages by model year. The resulting pages are a much more practical size and load much faster–just a few seconds for most, and about 16 seconds for the worst.

Even the first day’s response was unexpectedly strong. Visits to these pages nearly doubled and the percentage of people who “bounced” away immediately after landing on these pages plummeted (a good thing).

So, time to break up the entire site into smaller, more manageable chunks?

Pricing analyses: 2010 Saab 9-5 and 2011 Volvo S60

June 5th, 2010

In recent years Sweden’s car makers have staked out an uneasy position above the mainstream brands but below the premium European marques. With profits elusive, both were recently sold by their American owners. And both are about to introduce new sedans that they badly need to sell well. How does the pricing of the new 2011 Volvo S60 and 2010 Saab 9-5 compare? Has either been priced aggressively to pump up sales?

I’ve come across remarks that the Saab is considerably more expensive than the Volvo. And it is, especially before adjusting for its roughty $4,250 in additional standard content (based on TrueDelta.com’s car price comparison tool). The Volvo starts at $38,500, the Saab at $49,990. In both cases only the top trim level will be available initially, with others to follow.

But this isn’t a valid comparison. They’re both sedans powered through all four wheels by 300-horsepower turbocharged sixes, but the 9-5 is much larger than the S60, with 15 inches more overall length (197 vs. 182) and over five inches more rear legroom (38.8 vs. 33.5). The Volvo S60 really competes with the Saab 9-3, while the Saab 9-5 really competes with the Volvo S80. So each requires a comparison with its own peer group.

2010 Saab 9-5For the enlarged Saab 9-5, this means other midsize luxury sedans. After similarly loading up both cars (the default comparison at TrueDelta.com), the 2011 BMW 535i was about $12,800 more than the new 9-5. Even after adjusting for remaining feature differences the BMW is about $11,700 more, a sizable premium but one that history has proven many people will pay. The 2010 Mercedes-Benz E350 4Matic is not quite as pricey, about $8,000 more before feature adjustments, and about $5,800 afterwards. The 2010 Audi A6 3.0T is closer still, about $3,100 more than the Saab before feature adjustments, and about $3,500 more afterwards.

Moving beyond the pricey Germans, the redesigned 2011 Infiniti M37x lists for about $2,100 less than the Saab before adjusting for remaining feature differences, but is about $800 more afterwards. So this is a close match. A Lexus GS 350 AWD? Over $4,000 less than the Saab, but also a little more compact. And the 2010 Volvo S80 T6, which has failed to meet sales expectations? It’s about $1,600 less before feature adjustments and about $1,300 less afterwards. But it offers considerably less rear legroom, and needs to be closer to the Saab in size. From these comparisons, Saab appears to have priced the new 9-5 about even with the Infiniti and Volvo. If the car sells, it won’t be based on an aggressive pricing strategy.

2011 Volvo S60The new Volvo S60 goes up against the 3-Series and the other aspirants to the BMW’s crown. It replaces a model that has been on life support in the U.S. for the past three model years. Here as well the BMW costs quite a bit more. Specifically, a similarly loaded up 2011 335i xDrive lists for about $7,200 more. With the 2010 Audi S4 the difference is even larger, about $10,000. But then Volvo hasn’t blessed the new car with its late, lamented R moniker. The closest American competitor, the Cadillac CTS 3.6 AWD, is about $4,000 more than the Volvo after a series of price increases over the past few years.

On the other hand, a 2010 Infiniti 2010 G37x lists for about $4,900 less before feature adjustments, and still about $2,900 less afterwards. (The Japanese offer no other 300+ horsepower AWD sedans in this lower-midsize entry lux class.) Saab deprived the 9-3 of its V6 for 2010. Going back to the 2009, the 9-3 Aero was about $2,500 more expensive than the new S60—but massive $6,500+ rebates were required to get them off dealer lots. And what about the Volkswagen CC, which shares a coupe-like roofline with the new S60? In VR6 form it’s within $1,000 of the Volvo. The Volvo’s interior should be considerably nicer than the VW’s, and in general it should have a more premium look and feel. But is this a sign that the Volvo is aggressively priced, or that the VW is overpriced? More likely the latter.

So, with the new cars both Saab and Volvo appear to have maintained their pricing position from the past decade or so. They’re much less expensive than comparable German cars, but are at best even with and are often more expensive than Japanese competitors. This pricing strategy hasn’t helped them sell many cars in the U.S. in recent memory. So, unless the new cars are highly desirable to car buyers—they’ve really got to be outstanding in some highly relevant way—they’re not likely to sell much better than the cars they replace.

Of the two, the Volvo has the better shot, even a much better shot. Its brand is stronger, with a clearer identity and broader awareness and consideration. Its company’s future is (relatively) more secure. The new sedan’s more dramatically styled. And it’s simply easier to sell a $40,000 car than a $50,000 car.

But even $40,000 is a stretch for these brands. Neither should count on selling many of the trim trim level, and each needs to introduce lesser trims before the public fixates on the introductory pricing—if it hasn’t already.

To run your own price comparisons:

Car price comparisons

Good and not-so-good Germans

May 28th, 2010

If German cars had a stellar reputation for reliability, Lexus would not be where it is today. TrueDelta’s latest Car Reliability Survey results, based on owner experiences through the end of March 2010, provide some evidence that a corner has been turned, but other evidence that work remains to be done.

Two years ago the current Mercedes C-Class had a relatively trouble-free launch, and in the latest results the 2008 is better than average. Nearly three-quarters of owners haven’t had a single repair in the past year.

The redesigned-for-2010 Mercedes E-Class appears poised to go down the same path. TrueDelta’s first reliability stat for the car, 56 repair trips per 100 cars per year, is very close to the average for all cars. For an all-new car with above-average complexity this is quite good. It’s also far better than the record compiled by the make’s SUVs.

Initial stats for the new MkVI Volkswagen Golf, GTI, and Jetta SportWagen are mixed. Gas-powered 2010s barely managed an “about average” score (74, lower is better) while the diesel-powered TDIs, plagued by faulty O2 sensors, scored considerably worse than the average (143). Both scores are considerably worse than those for the 2008 and 2009 model year cars.

All of the updated results:

Car Reliability Survey results

Satisfaction with reliability

May 10th, 2010

Every year Ford hires RDA Group, a market research firm, to conduct a reliability survey for it. Mostly it uses the data internally, but it also usually issues a press release touting any Ford wins.

This year Ford announced that, based on this survey, they have the auto industry’s highest satisfaction with quality.

This survey also measures things gone wrong, which I can relate to. Satisfaction with quality or reliability is a different animal. While it will track with reliability, it also includes a subjective component and permits owners’ feelings about other aspects of the vehicle to affect responses. Like how the car drives? Then a small problem or two might seem okay, and you’re still “satisfied.”

Expectations also play a large role. If you expected many problems, you’ll be quite satisfied if you only have two. Expect zero, and you’ll be dissatisfied with the same two.

Also, read the text and you’ll find that they’re not actually claiming to be the highest of any manufacturer, but of any “full line manufacturer.” Who does this include, only GM, Chrysler, Toyota, and Nissan? No one else offers a large pickup.

Buick to eliminate CX, CXL, CXS trim levels in 2012 MY

May 6th, 2010

Buick has announced that they’re going to eliminate the CX, CXL, and CXS trim levels with their 2012 models. Instead, they’ll offer a hierarchy of option packages. Why? To eliminate the impression that the base model is the “cheap one,” which is unbefitting a premium brand. Which is why premium brands generally don’t have trim levels.

I’m all for this change, because the trim levels were meaningless and I could never keep straight whether the CXL or the CXS was the top model.

But it will only work if, as they imply, they boost base content so there truly is no “cheap one” suitable only for rental fleets and people who are really Chevrolet’s target.

Ford Fiesta vs. Mazda2: price and features comparison

April 6th, 2010

Within the next few months the Ford Fiesta and Mazda2 will finally arrive as U.S. dealers. The two are closely related under the skin, and are the lastest entries into the B-car subcompact class that was rejuvenated a few years ago by the Honda Fit, Nissan Versa, and Toyota Yaris. Which appears to the better buy?

2011 Ford FiestaPrice comparisons using TrueDelta’s car price comparison tool of similarly loaded cars find that the Ford Fiesta and Mazda2 are closely priced. A loaded Mazda2 Touring is a significant $1,880 less sticker-to-sticker 2011 Mazda2compared to a similarly loaded Fiesta SES, but adjusting for the Fiesta’s additional features nearly eliminates this advantage, reducing it to about $200. Compare a Mazda2 Sport with a Fiesta SE hatch, both with manual transmissions and no options, and the Mazda lists for $1,065 less, but adjusting for remaining feature differences cuts the gap to about $300.

So, the Mazda2 generally lists for less, but the Ford Fiesta has a higher level of content.

These feature adjustments don’t include styling, power, and fuel economy. I haven’t been able to drive either car yet, but I have had the chance to sit in both of them. To my eye, the Ford is more attractive and has a more upscale look and feel. The Mazda is powered by a 100-horsepower 1.5-liter, the Ford by a 119-horsepower 1.6. The manual transmission in both cases is a five-speed. Opt for the automatic, and the Mazda gives you four conventional gears. Ford instead offers a six-speed automated manual, a much better choice for anyone who cares about driving.

Despite being more powerful, the Ford Fiesta also gets better fuel economy ratings, 30/40 vs. 28/34 (with the optional transmissions).

So, from what I know so far the Mazda2 seems the way to go only for people interested in paying as little as possible. Anyone willing to pay a little more for the Ford will get a car that looks better, has more power, gets better gas mileage, and includes more features.

Summary stats added to repair histories

April 2nd, 2010

Summary statistics have been added to the repair histories. These report total repair and (if entered) maintenance expenses since the beginning of the calendar year, for the past year, and since the car was purchased.

Also, if costs are reported per repair or maintenance item, and not just for the repair trip as a whole, the same statistics are reported for each item type. So members can now keep better track of their repair and maintenance costs.

Additional statistics, including cost per mile driven, and planned for future updates.

An excerpt, from the maintenance and repair history for my wife’s 2002 PT Cruiser, reduced to fit this space (the type in the original is larger and clear):

Sample TrueDelta Car Repair History

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